Here we go again…  here are my 10 informed best guesses on what will happen in the Canadian market place this year. Click here to see how I did against last year’s predictions. 

1. It will be the year of the App store. Every manufacturer in the smartphone space will have a mobile application store, but Apple will continue to dominate the market because they are the only ones who focus on usability first
2. There will be several new models of the iphone announced and launched this year – including a “nano” version.  I predict that copy & paste will still not be among one of its many features
3. Palm Pre will do better than any Android device. Friends, peers and industry pals all mocked me for predicting that they would make a come back when I published some predictions in August, but I’m sticking with this one
4. Mobile security and privacy will become a big focus for marketers and the industry as more people use feature rich smart phones (25% of Canadians are already on them)
5. Mobile payment systems will finally reach retail as both MasterCard and Visa should be ready to go  
6. MMS will fail to reach its promise as the market shifts to the mobile web for richer experiences
7. Both Bell and Telus announce GSM compatibility / network infrastructure upgrades in order to get a piece of the lucrative GSM roaming market and to counter efforts by new regional and national carriers who will be entering the marketing in Q4
8. Microsoft will release a new OS for mobile that includes a 2d code reader that supports their own proprietary M-Tag.  This will finally bring 2d codes into the mainstream in North America
9. All major Canadian news / content websites will have a specific mobile enabled website
10. 40 Billion SMS messages will be sent in Canada – up from about the 20 Billion fore-casted in 2008.

What do you think? Feel free to comment /add your own predictions.

The New York Times reported last week that the true costs of text messaging (or SMS) to carrier is effectively zero.  This is curious as the average U.S. carrier has doubled their costs in the last three years from 10 cents a message to 20 cents.

The cost is effectively zero as the bandwidth used to transmit messages is so minuscule that that even the 2.5 trillion sent in the U.S. last year had little impact overall on their infrastructure.

A major part of the reason is that the message is carried on what is called a control channel – space or spectrum reserved for the operation of the network itself for connecting a tower to a specific mobile device. The reason SMS messages cannot be more than 160 characters is so that they can fit within this channel.

The control channel sends 160 characters each time a connection is made – even if there is no SMS message attached for the free ride.

It’s like charging your wife for gas to drive her home from the office – even though you were already heading home regardless if she needed a ride or not. Then charge her double the following day. See how long that relationship lasts…

Cross your fingers that new carriers like Globalive will do more than just say all the right things during their courtship of your mobile service contract when they go live in 2009. 

A new Harris / Decima survey has reported mobile penetration in Canada at 72% – up from 64% in 2006.

This now means that mobile has grown to roughly the same size at the Canadian broadband internet market.  

Other notable highlights include:

• The number of households with cell phones only have increased by 20% since 2006 – and an additional 19% say they may discontinue their home phone in the next year
• 69% of households have more than one cell phone
• Alberta leads Canada with 82% penetration / adoption
• Quebec is the lowest at 61%
• SMS and picture taking are the top two activities in Canada apart from Voice calls
• About 54 million SMS messages are being sent a month now
• 38% of Youth have sent or received MMS

Atlhough our overall engagement numbers still trail other countries in almost every category, the trend is positive.

To read the full press release, click here.

Q: Are there certain age groups or regions that have been more responsive to mobile marketing and how would you predict this to change?

A: Just like the interweb, the younger generations were the quickest to adopt SMS and are still the most likely to respond to a call to action via sms

Having said that, keep the following three things in mind:

1. Parents and grand parents are fast growing segments for SMS because they’ve realized that in order to stay somewhat in touch with their kids and grand kids, they had to learn how to text. As a result, SMS adoption is penetrating all demographics and should no longer be considered a tween or teen obsession only
2. How many of your friends have blackberries? Ever notice that they are emailing their co-workers & friends as often as the kids sending SMS back and forth? With RIM having around 40% market share in Canada, there are lots of people who are exhibiting the same behaviours and dependancies on mobile as those who are more SMS reliant.
3. We’ve found that the “professional age” demographic is far more likely to go on to the mobile web than other demographics. The reason is that many of these folks are using PDAs (like blackberry) that come with nicer & larger screens and data plans that are paid for by their company.

Response rates for mobile marketing can be good or great across all demographics. It’s not unusual to get 6% on well targeted mobile campaigns for example.

The key is knowing your audience and understanding how to deliver your message in the most audience relevant context (sms, mobile web, bluetooth etc…) with a relevant message.

With 3.3 billion mobile devices in use worldwide today, mobile is already a mass medium and marketers who figure out how to integrate mobile into their marketing mix now will be at a huge advantage tomorrow when mobile goes from experimental to essential.

Q: As you said, you mobile device is very personal. As a marketer, what kind of mobile marketing tactics can you do that don’t annoy or invade consumer’s perceived personal space

A: Unlike some other marketing mediums, mobile is not an interruption medium – which means every tactic can be perceived as annoying or invading personal space… unless you get permission or an opt-in first.

In cases where you are leveraging bluetooth to engage a consumer directly, ensure the message is specifically relevant and in context to where they are receiving it, and ask for permission to continue the conversation before delivering the message.

For all other mobile channels (sms, mms, mobile web, widget etc…) it again starts with relevance and in the case of acquisition based initiatives, you need a strong call to action.

Mobile rarely works on its own – so don’t think of a mobile tactic as something to replace something else in your marketing mix that has worked before. Instead, think of mobile as an extension of your existing campaign.

For examples and case studies on effective mobile tactics, check out the Mobile Marketing Association (MMA) website here.

With retailer’s becoming more technologically advanced (RFID, Bluetooth, wifi) what is the future of “proximity marketing” through a mobile device? – Ian Barnett, spider marketing.

With technology playing a larger role in the retail experience, we can expect traditional old in-store media to become very interactive. It’s happening now with LCD screens – but the ability to get additional product information or get drawn to products through bluetooth, SMS, mobile web, or qr codes represents real and near future opportunities

In some countries like South Africa for example, consumers are entering malls and downloading virtual coupon books through Bluetooth before starting their shopping. They download a widget or application to their device once, then simply update the content through bluetooth every time they enter a bluetooth zone in the mall.

Think of mobile technology as conversation enablers vs. interruption devices. Nobody wants to be bombarded with messages on their phone – so the successful retail experiences will incorporate opt-in first for any technology play that goes beyond signage.

When will this happen in Canada?

It’s already started. Several malls in Ottawa and out West have already started piloting bluetooth projects and other mobile related projects are also in play across the industry. RBC is piloting a mobile payments platform called mobex which could also roll out to the masses in the next 18 months.  You won’t see widespread qr codes until a carrier incorporates them on their device.

We have enough examples from around the world on the future of proximity marketing in Canada, the bigger question is when will proximity marketing really take off. My bet is 2010.

Question from the audience this week: Could you speak about the multi-device testing process when building mobile sites? Any testing pitfalls with pushing SMS?

Actually that’s two questions, but good ones and easy to answer.

To test how ready your new mobile site is to function across all devices, simply input your test URL here at ready ready.mobi. Getting a 5 out of 5 on their score means you can confidently launch your site knowing it will work on all devices. I personally wouldn’t launch anything that scores less than 4

If you want to test or build for devices specific features or get more testing support, check out mobiforge.com. It’s a great resource.

SMS testing is a different story

Although SMS is a universal feature on mobile devices, testing your SMS programs requires a live shortcode bounded to a platform. Shortcodes are like URLs for mobile… but the process of acquiring them and maintaining them is far more complicated. Learn more at txt.ca.

Chances are you will be hiring a mobile company (or an agency that does mobile) for your SMS needs. They should do all testing and validation for SMS for you. This process requires testing of individual connections between all the carriers bounded to your shortcode.

Be sure to allow for plenty of time for testing – you can’t rush an SMS program out the door. It’s not unusual for it to take 3 months for new shortcodes or at least a few weeks if you are using a shared shortcode

Earlier this year I made 10 predictions for mobile – and many of them have already come true! Check out the original post here. 

As part of their mobile insert this month, Strategy Magazine asked if I could provide 10 new sets of predictions… so here they are 10 predictions for the Canadian Mobile marketing ecosystem over the next 12 months as printed in this month’s issue:  

1. Fixed Bluetooth networks will appear all over the country – giving marketers and advertisers proximity marketing abilities as seen in the UK and South Africa
2. One carrier will start the 2d bar code craze by introducing a line of devices that come with a decoder pre-installed. Scanning heads of lettuce for nutritional information will become common-place shortly after (as they already are in Japan)
3. The Mobile web will become more important for marketers as a channel than SMS as devices such as the iphone and the blackberry bold (and rumoured thunder) will raise the bar in terms of overall experience with a high speed mobile web experience on our national 3G network
4. Mobile widgets and applications become bigger drivers for consumer behaviour than the device itself. It will no longer be just about the hardware
5. Palm will make a comeback and once again compete in the “smartphone” space
6. Thanks to built-in GPS in many devices, Location based services (LBS) mashups will make your mobile device more personal and relevant. Marketers will be shortly behind
7. A new Social Networking utility goes totally mobile (with LBS) – and competes with facebook for Canadian mindshare
8. Mobile gaming will explode in popularity – leading to strong growth in mobile advertising
9. At least one new GSM national Carrier will enter the marketplace and will compete directly with Rogers. They’ll probably sell the iphone too. Look for either Bell or Telus (or both) to signal a move into supporting GSM in Canada as well
10. Over 30 billion SMS messages will be sent in Canada – up from the predicted 18 billion this year

The CWTA just released updated stats for March 2008:

1. 1.4 billion text / SMS messages were sent in March alone! This is up from 1.2 billion in December 2007.  We are definitely trending towards 20 billion for the year (that would be double 2007 numbers)
2. 42% of messages sent from unique individuals – up from 37% in September 2007. This is really significant because it means the same people aren’t just texting more… we are actually increasing adoption & usage as a whole.

With reasonable data plans finally becoming available in Canada (as low as $7 / month for unlimited on a non-PDA device), we should be expecting huge increases in the mobile web /mobile widgets this year as well.

It’s hard to believe that shortcodes for SMS or “text messaging” is only 5 years old in Canada.

It’s also hard to believe that many marketers are still largely ignorant as to what or how SMS marketing can be incorporated into a multi-channel campaign.

For those who think SMS is not yet ready for the masses, consider this:

• 10.1 billion SMS messages were sent in Canada last year – over 1 billion in December alone
• That’s more than double (~4.3b) from 2006
• Which is more than double (~2.1) from 2005
• There are over 20 million Canadians with at least one mobile device now
• Penetration of mobile is as high as 80% in urban areas

SMS marketing is already a mass medium.

Mobile messaging is evolving. MMS (or multi-media messaging) is finally going mainstream. Rogers now has an all you can eat plan for $15 / month. 2d codes are also coming to a broader audience as a few local mobile shops are working on some retail pilots.

Tonight the CWTA is putting on a party celebrating 5 years of text messaging in Canada.

I’ll also be celebrating what is to come!