Around this time last year I made some outrageous predictions about what was to come in 2008.  Let’s take a quick look back and see how well I did: 

1. SMS third party advertising will take off.  Didn’t really see this take off in Canada and with the mobile web / and mobile widgets taking off, I can’t see this as a big focus in 2009. Having said that, there are more services popping up that allow media planners to venture into SMS as well as the Mobile web.
2. Mobile Web Advertising will become part of your media buy. This definitely happened in 2008 in Canada with Quattro and Yahoo offering a good mix of inventory to buy. This will only continue to grow in 2009. 
3. MMS Common short codes will arrive. This did happen in 2008 – although not all mobile aggregators are able to facilitate this for you. MyThumb mobile was the first to offer MMS short codes and now you can also go through Magnet Mobile too. 
4. Mobile payments will start to emerge as a new payment medium. There was a great conferences this year on the subject in Canada facilitated by the Canadian Institute.  RBC and Visa launched their pilot program for contactless payments in Canada. Visa also recently launched 4 new international pilot programs. Mastercard also announced this past May that they’re launching a pilot to extend their pay pass program to mobile. 
5. The iphone will finally arrive in Canada. It sure did – and I was right that they waited until the 3G version came out. I also predicted that other retailers may offer the device – which didn’t happen… although both Walmart and select Sam’s Club stores will be selling them in the near future.  Best Buy and Future shop also announced that they would be carrying it. 
6. Fixed or low-cost data plans will be universal. Although not as low as we’d like, we finally have affordable plans in Canada. Yah! I was paying $80 for 500 megs last year and now I’m paying $45 for 500 megs and includes a voice plan. 
7. Mobile web will catch fire. I was partially right here. Thanks to smartphones like the iphone, more consumers discovered the mobile web, but more specifically mobile widgets that grab data from the mobile web have really taken off thanks to the iphone app store. 
8. New mobile carriers will be announced. This happened and was blogged about here.
9. Google will launch their own phone (gphone) with their own operating system and buy U.S. spectrum. The first two happened, but they decided not to aggressively pursue spectrum… this time. There are other auctions coming up in 2009…
10. Social Networking will make the leap from desktop to Mobile as a primary interface / access point. We definitely saw a huge leap in 2008 to mobile – with facebook, linkedin, hi-5 and twitter all offering great mobile options through widgets and mobile web. Twitter saw over 600% growth and a big part of this can be attributed to mobile.  Mobile only social networking sites such as itsmy.com also saw big growth in 2008. They even partnered up with my favorite mobile and social search tool taptu to enhance their member services. 

I published a second list in August as part of a mobile insert at Strategy Magazine.  We’ll take a look at those ones in my next post before making some super crazy predictions for 2009

Over the past year I’ve blogged on more than one occasion about the frustrations many Canadian Marketers have had around the lack of data available on how Canadians use and interact with mobile.

This week Lemay-Yates Associates Inc. (LYA)has released a 100 page report after conducting extensive research into the Canadian broadband mobile market over the last few months covering handsets offered by 17 mobile carriers, flanker brands and MVNOs/resellers, as well as their features.

LYA also surveyed Canadian consumers to assess which mobile data services they currently use and to characterize the overall penetration and current usage of Canadian consumers.

Check out this 7 minute interview that highlights many of the findings (sorry for the secondary browser link – bnn does not offer video embed – shame!):

Their mobile report also addresses questions such as:

• What is the status of brand competition in each region of Canada: from BC, top Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, to Ontario, Quebec and the Maritime provinces
• What is the status of handsets with GPS capabilities for each service provider?
• Which carrier is the champion in supporting social networking applications?
• What is the current penetration of social networking applications such as facebook and MySpace among Canadian consumers?
• Who currently uses heavy data applications such as watching streaming TV or YouTube?
• How many iPhones could Rogers sell over the relatively short term and which carriers are more at risk of losing customers to the iPhone?
• How much do Canadians think mobile data is worth to them?
• Mobile carriers and service providers, broadcasters, third party applications developer, equipment and handset suppliers will gain new insight and a better understanding of this rapidly emerging market by purchasing this Report.

Want more details? Go to their website here.

Check out the video preview below of the new blackberry storm – coming soon from Bell and Telus in Canada.

Overall the touch screen looks impressive with its “tactile” enhanced keyboard – although it’s ironic that zoom in and out and other common features are menu driven instead of touch, pinch, or pull driven like the iphone.

Having said that, full marks for a great looking camera with flash and gosh – a copy and paste option – something iphone users have been begging for from day one.

Q:Do you think there is enough saturation in the market from pdas that support them to make branded widgets/applications a viable option for clients? How do we position this in a world where everyone watches tv but only a small percentage use PDAs?

A:The first thing you need to do is not think of mobile as a one to many medium. Because relevance and context are key, there are very few widgets or applications that everybody would want or need.  The closet thing i’ve seen to a mass appeal widget are the weather widgets. The Weather Network now has both a blackberry and iphone widget and they are doing really well

The key to developing a mobile widget or application is to first understand your target audience and validate that you would be fulfilling a need by creating a widget.  If your target audience is not primarily on a smartphone / pda device, chances are you would have better success building out a mobile website or even an sms based application… or maybe even something on the old desktop interweb!

Having said that, last month the new 3g iphone was the top selling mobile device in the U.S. – outselling the Motorola Razr for the first time. This is significant because the iphone is more expensive – and it’s offers the richest user experience for mobile web, widgets, and applications. 

What does this mean? Soon we will not be distinguishing between smartphones and others as all phones will come feature rich no matter what shape / form they take.

In regards to the comment about television – keep in mind that consumers are multitaskers. Chances are they are watching tv and checking their email or sms on their mobile device at the same time. Many also have their laptop open too.

If you’re an agency lucky enough to control the entire marketing mix, be sure to include a call to action in your television commercial to drive them to web, mobile web, or sms. This will make an old medium like television more measurable – and you get to start or continue a conversation with a consumer beyond your 30 second spot.

This is an excellent question posed by the panel audience earlier this week.

The short answer is – nearly 100% of mobile devices in Canada have a mobile browser.

Every new device comes with one and consumers are updating & replacing their devices faster than ever. It used to be that every 2-3 years a consumer would update their device. Now it’s about every 6-9 months. Also, thanks to Stephanie at Yiibu for this link which shows device market share by Country.

Having said that, keep in mind that the mobile web experience varies greatly from device to device. You can design and develop sites that will work just fine on every device if you follow the standards laid out by the W3c and dotmobi.

Unlike the interweb where we are often designing for the lowest common denominator, you can design for the highest common denominator for the mobile web.  We can auto-detect your device before serving content so that you can serve up a very rich experience for smartphones (i.e. bb bold, iphone) and a more basic experience for your standard clamshell device for example.

Data plans in Canada have come way down in the last year. You can get unlimited data plans for as low as $7 / month from Bell and Telus for your flip phone, and as low as $30 / month for your smartphone from Rogers.

Summary: The mobile web is a viable channel to extend your message.  Be sure to design for mobile and user context instead of trying to cram an interweb site into a smaller screen.

Although it’s impressive that the iphone outsold the blackberry and it’s also impressive that the gphone has 1.5 million pre-orders, keep the following in mind:

1. RIM has not been able to launch the Blackberry BOLD in the U.S. (the largest market for them) due to issues AT&T has been having with certifying it. If the BOLD had been on sale the last few months as expected, the numbers would look very different
2. RIM is releasing a few new consumer driven devices over the next two months including the new clam-shell pearl, a curve with push to talk, and the thunder – RIM’s touch screen version meant to compete with iphone head-on
3. Don’t confuse pre-orders by a carrier with sales to consumers. They’re very different… and most initial reports on the gphone say it’s no iphone killer as it’s heavier, clunkier and the interface is nothing new or innovative. No word yet on who will be the first carrier in Canada to carry it either.

2009 is shaping up to be the year of the smartphone as all the major players are releasing “iphone killers” and you can expect Apple to have a few surprises of their own. More competition and choice can only mean good things for consumers. 

On Friday Greystripe released a  quarterly update on mobile gaming consumer metrics for advertisers. With the addition of the iphone to the market, the user demographic for mobile games is changing.

The data is based on observed behaviour on the U.S. Greystripe network from July 1st through September 30th, 2008.

Greystripe’s iPhone games are the most popular among the sought-after 18 to 34- year old age group, with 48% of users falling into that category.

Here are some other highlights:

• The 18 to 34-year old demographic is well-educated and affluent, with 80% having attended college and 46% making more than $78K a year
• 75% of iPhone game players access the mobile Web at least once a day, while 66% use it more than once a day
• 87% of game players on both feature phones and the iPhone are involved in the purchasing decisions in their families, with 73% of these respondents using the mobile Web at least once per day
• With over 100 million downloads of their mobile games, Greystripe is seeing a worldwide 9.1% click-through rate on their advertisements

You can see the Report in its entirety here:

The Blackberry Storm was formally announced this morning to the press and on their fan page on facebook.

Many had been predicting that a touch screen interface added to an already impressive blackberry architecture would be the perfect storm of form and function to take on the iphone. 

Although initial images and specs look impressive, I have some concerns over its ability to truly compete in the consumer smartphone space: 

1. No Wifi – I don’t know how any manufacturer can release a consumer smartphone device and not offer wifi. It’s in the Bold – why not the Storm? It’s possible that the Canadian versions will include Wifi, but the versions being released on Verizon and Vodafone do not have it
2. It weighs more than the iphone and has a slightly smaller screen. Although it looks like the sleekest blackberry to date, it needs to compete in the cool department and wear as well as the iphone as a fashion device
3. No app store – or equivalent. The ability to personalize and customize an iphone through the dummy-proof app store is a huge contributor to the success of the iphone. Microsoft and Nokia are building their own app stores, where’s the bb store? 

Having said that, the storm addresses one of the biggest complaints from iphone users – adding tactile into a touch screen. Apparently the new touch screen will mimic hitting a real keyboard – but on a touch screen.

This will make a lot of people happy (assuming it works well), although I don’t know why they chose their “suretype” keyboard as the default interface. This is the same interface found on the Pearl where 2 letters occupy each key.  Turning the phone horizontally switches the keyboard to full QWERTY – which is a great feature and something iphone users have also been asking for. 

The storm comes with an impressive radio frequency capability – meaning it will work virtually anywhere in the world out of the box. This is especially useful for the business traveller. 

Mac owners will be able to sync to the Storm without a third party suite via the BlackBerry Media Sync program for Mac.

Similar to an iPhone, Media Sync will let users choose to sync all or only some play lists, and will give a certain amount of control over storage. Owners pick whether to load music to built-in memory or an add-in card, and have an iPod shuffle-style ability to reserve a certain minimum of free memory on their BlackBerrys for more essential info.

Should you buy a storm over a 3g iphone? 

I will definitely be picking one up when it hits retail in Canada – which should be in about 6 weeks.

The highlight for me yesterday at CTIA was the keynote address from Yahoo executive Vice President Marco Boerries where he announced the introduction of Yahoo! oneConnect for the iphone.

The live demo demonstrated how this new application (optimized for the iphone) takes your address book and makes it social by aggregating all your mobile messaging via IM and SMS and all your lifestream feeds into one amazing interface.

Like friendfeed and Social Thing, you can add myspace, last.fm,dopplr,twitter, friendster, bebo,flickr,youtube and facebook feeds to oneConnect under their Pulse feature. You can now scan what is happening across all networks from one mobile interface.  This also means you can update your status in one place and have all your other streams automatically updated.

Users will also be able to track their contacts on a single screen, with information on their status and the ability to quickly call or send an IM or email.

The application is available for free in the app store – although it wasn’t indexing yet on their search tool. If you are having problems finding it, go to mobile.yahoo.com/oneconnect/iphone and click on the app link. This will bring you into the app store for immediate download.

I’ve spent some time on it so far, but I’m afraid of the roaming charges associated with customizing it right now, so look for additional perspective later.

Yahoo plans on releasing versions for other platforms, but it’s hard to imagine how they’ll be able to create a comparable experience on other platforms.

Earlier this week I managed to secure one of the first corporate issued blackberry BOLDs that were sent to us by Rogers.

After about 20 minutes I had successfully swapped my SIM card, loaded the new desktop software on to my laptop and had fully synchronized my email and other data to my new device.

First impressions? The Bold  is the best and most complete Blackberry ever put to market.

It comes with: A super fast processor, wicked resolution, an improved design, Wifi, Bluetooth, and keys that don’t feel like cheap plastic (a la curve).  The web browser does a pretty good job at rendering desktop websites, and finally there is a way to manage your media files. It’s a bit wider than the 8800 – but it’s a bit thinner too.

Here are some things I really liked:

1. Copy and paste – so simple… but so necessary. Still can’t believe this isn’t a feature on the iphone
2. Flash with the camera – again something the iphone lacks
3. Video capture
4. New media capabilities for music and video – you can even sync with itunes… but it’s still not as easy to use or figure out as the iphone
5. Crystal clear screen with incredible resolution -  the best so far from Blackberry.
6. Like the iphone, the Bold is 3G – meaning it runs on Canada’s fastest wireless network. Download speeds here in Toronto are similar to broadband at home
7. Improved icons and operating system make for an improved overall user / device experience
8. Battery life seems pretty good. I went a full day of normal usage and still had half the bars left
9. Micro-SD card slot – that is accessible without having to remove the battery. NICE.
10. Overall aesthetics of the device.
11. Keyboard – the keys actually feel bigger than my 8800. There’s a certain comfort to tactile typing

Things I didn’t like:

1. SMS is now a separate icon… and doesn’t come as one of the default icons on the main screen. I figured out how to reorder the icons, but it took me a few minutes. I understand why this is separate as that’s how most other platforms deal with it, but I wonder how many existing blackberry users who are used to seeing SMS in their email inbox will be confused or lost by this subtle change.
2. There is no intuitive way to download other widgets directly from the device. This probably wouldn’t have been a complaint before Apple introduced the App store… but it’s something that is really missing now.  4 widgets came pre-loaded in the download folder (yahoo, facebook, Google talk and bb help), but what about the rest? Missing the App store here…
3. Speaking of widgets, I still really dislike the blackberry facebook widget. It’s completely out of sync with the iphone version… even the generic mobile web version is more intuitive and functional.  I was hoping that with the new device there’d be a newer version…

Other oddities / observations

1. Love the auto-correct feature – although some of the interpretations are funny. I sent an SMS to my girlfriend with “xoxoxoxoxo” and when I accepted the auto-correct it replaced it with “zigzag”
2. When you download widgets you often have to click to accept terms and conditions. It’s not intuitive to see that “decline” is pre-selected and once you do accept, you aren’t brought back to the main screen. I had to back out of the terms screens to see my new icon
3. A proper craddle is missing from the box. The Bold comes with a neat retro-looking clock that activates when you are charging – so wouldn’t it be nice to have a cradle so that it actually acts as a clock on your desk?  

Should you buy a Blackberry Bold?

If you love your current blackberry, you will absolutely love the Bold. It’s by far the best device created to date. 

By improving on the best mobile device for professionals (by adding in some features found previously only on consumer devices), you’ve got a great device that should sell really well.

If you’re still unsure and you are still coveting the iphone… wait a few months for the Blackberry Thunder (now rumored to be called the Javelin) which will be a full touch screen version of the Bold.