What was cause for celebration a few weeks ago has turned into a national embarrassment and another reminder that the Canadian mobile marketplace is not yet a very competitive one.

The new plans announced by Rogers are not consistent with plans being offered south of the border by AT&T or in other countries where plans include unlimited data for around $30/month.

The Rogers iphone plan starts around $60 before system charges and other fees. It does include talk time… but only 150 minutes.  You also have a data limit of 400 megs of data… which is not a lot considering the iphone is heavily dependant on data for all their widgets and the average iphone user uses 8 of them on a regular basis.  

Americans on AT&T get 3 times more talk time and unlimited data for about the same price 

Even the Rogers heavy usage plan doesn’t offer unlimited data. Since the announcement and subsequent consumer backlash, they have now indicated that customers can use other “smartphone” plans instead of the announced iphone plans. For example, I could transfer my blackberry rates (~$100/month for data alone) to the iphone. Again, no big deal and still substantially more expensive than other iphone plans offered in other countries.

Wait at least a month if you still really want one and here’s why…

Bell just announced that they will be releasing the new Samsung Instinct on August 8th which will include an unlimited data plan. The Instinct is a touch-based phone like the iphone and offers many of the same features. The user experience isn’t quite as great as the iphone… but it’s a great alternative. Thanks to Kate for sending a tweet on that announcement yesterday!

I wouldn’t be surprised if Telus came out with a similar data plan for their HTC or other smartphone products too… which means Rogers will likely update their plans if they don’t reach their targets with the iphone.

There are two more reasons to wait to buy that iphone…

1. The Rogers deal to sell the iphone isn’t exclusive - which means another GSM provider can sell it. With at least one new carrier coming to Canada after the current spectrum auction finishes up in the next few weeks, it’s almost a certainty that they’ll be GSM based. Expect them to be in market later this year or early next
2. The iphone is a great device… but what makes it really super awesome are all the utilities, enhancements, and UI hacks available for those who were brave enough to jailbreak it.  As of today, there is no jailbreaking solution for the new 3G iphone… but it’s only a matter of time

If you haven’t made the dash to Buffalo or some other U.S. border town already to buy a first generation iphone, you can probably stand to wait a month or two for better rates and more flexibility in customizing & personalizing it.

In the meantime, feel free to join the following online petitions against the new Rogers plans:

• 
• Petitiononline.com

Rogers is expected to go live shortly with a new data pricing structure that will offer unlimited data for just $20 a month under a new plan called the “communicate value pack” ….which is very similar to the ~20/ month plan offered by AT&T in the U.S. for those with an iphone.

Bell has been offering $7 unlimited data for months now - albeit on their slower 1x network.

This is good news for consumers in Canada looking for affordable packages….and certainly could be interpreted as a signal that the iphone will be coming to Canada this spring as speculated in this blog.

After calling Rogers today to change my data plan to their new $65 / 1 gig a month plan, I was enlightened by two things:

1. Their $80 / 500 meg plan a month was still the best plan available for a consumer mobile device on Rogers. The $65 / 1 GIG plan is available only for their Air Cards - or PCMCIA cards that you stick into your laptop to get Internet access when wifi is not available. Apparently switching to the Air Card program can brick your mobile device.
2. The Rogers CSR indicated that consumer data plans for mobile devices will be dropping again soon - most likely this spring.

Why wait until the spring to further reduce data plan rates?

The reason is simple - Rogers won’t lower their rates until they absolutely have to. Even with cheaper plans now available on Telus and Bell, there hasn’t been a notable customer migration away from Rogers. 

Everybody knows that Rogers will be carrying the iphone when it eventually comes here.

Rogers will likely continue to charge higher rates until the iphone arrives as Apple mandates that cheap or fixed rates are offered - similar to what we’ve seen from AT&T and other European carriers.

I’d wager a loonie that springtime will be our time to finally get the iphone.

Today Canadians everywhere waited with baited breath for news from the MacWorld 2008 Conference and Expo in San Francisco that the iPhone would finally be coming to Canada to a Rogers plan near you.

That news never came

Industry speculation is that Rogers won’t offer fixed or cheap data plans to match what other countries have offered. While you can get an all you can eat data plan for the iphone in the U.S. for around $20 / month, the best you can do right now on Rogers is an $80 monthly plan for 500 megs of data…which sounds like a lot, but wouldn’t be enough for those who want to take full advantage of the media rich features that come standard with the iphone.

Apple wants to control every part of the user experience - so getting an unexpectedly high bill for your fancy new iphone could negatively impact brand perception and advocacy for Apple. I certainly wasn’t thrilled with the $400 bill I received from Rogers the first month after hooking up my iphone on their network.

Now the good news

As reported in the Toronto Star this week, there is a chance that Telus will make the switch from CDMA (a common format in North America) to GSM - which has been adopted by the rest of the world.  An industry source also indicated to me this week that Bell is also investigating a potential switch to GSM.

The reasons are three-fold:

1. To get a piece of the global roaming fees that are currently exclusive to Rogers
2. To get access to a wider array of mobile devices that also offer more margin and more flexible terms
3. To compete with the pending new Canadian wireless carrier who is expected to build a GSM-based network as well

More Canadian GSM-based carriers mean more competition which means more choice and better value for Canadians.

It also means when new mobile devices such as the iphone burst on to the global scene, we won’t be the last industrialized country to get it.

It also means I will no longer be one of the few in Toronto with an iphone.. but I can live with that

It’s a silly excercise, but everybody does it.  After a banner year for mobile in Canada, here are 10 outrageous predictions for 2008:  

1. SMS third-party advertising - every SMS you send is 150 characters…most of which is sent as blank space. I predict new services will take advantage of this in 2008 to deliver SMS advertising to off-set mobile costs for the consumer (but only if they opt-in of course)
2. Mobile Web advertising will take a piece of your media buy. We’ve seen it happen with online media…now with more inventory becoming available off-deck, the time is right to test and pilot this channel
3. MMS Common Short Codes will finally arrive and usher us into a new era in Mobile marketing in Canada….or at least catch us up to the rest of the world.
4. Mobile payments (m-Commerce) will start to emerge from text books, blogs, and sales pitches.  Look for pilots from Interac, Visa and at least one of the major banks next year.
5. The iphone will finally arrive in Canada - but it will be the second generation 3G phone that will support higher internet access speeds and cool features like video calling. This will be offered exclusively on the Rogers network - but don’t be surprised if another non-mobile retailer offers them for sale first
6. Fixed or low-cost data plans will be universal across all carriers in Canada. It’s already started with Bell and Rogers now offers an $80 / month plan for 500 megs of data - plenty for most of us. It’s still a long way from other plans around the world that are 4 times cheaper or better, but it’s a start
7. Due to fixed or low-cost data plans, look for the mobile web to catch fire.  Marketing campaigns will start incorporating mobile web strategies as part of their marketing mix
8. A new mobile carrier will be announced. The Canadian government announced the opening of new spectrum and is reserving a piece of it for a new player and with special engagement rules that will make it easier for a new competitor to enter the market.
9. Google will continue its charge towards world mobile domination. Look for their gphone sometime in the 3rd quarter and look for them to either bid on spectrum in the U.S., buy a carrier like Sprint outright to own a piece without having to go through the auction process or leverage their new mobile platform called Android to get direct access to many subscribers across many carriers.
10. Social Networking will make the leap from desktop to Mobile as a primary interface / access point 

Even if only a few of these come to fruition in 2008, it will be a great year for Marketers and a great year for Consumers.

Happy Holidays!

Today the federal government of Canada announced that they are opening up the wireless communications industry in May of 2008 by making spectrum available specifically for newcomers to break up the Oligopoly of Bell, Telus, and Rogers in Canada.

As reported by the Toronto Star today, the move is expected to increase competition in Canada to create better pricing, more options and better service. Canadians are already paying as much as 33% more for similar data plans in the U.S. for average users and up to 56% more for heavy users.  Mobile usage in Canada is among the lowest in the developed world at around 58% - compared to some European countries that are close to 100%. A fourth major carrier is bound to drive down prices and drive up adoption in Canada.

This is great news for consumers. This is also great news for marketers.  Better pricing means marketers can boldly go beyond SMS campaigns and leverage the full potential of the mobile web and mobile applications which rely on the mobile web for data to create a rich experience on mobile devices. Yahoo for example has a great downloadable mobile product called Yahoo! Go which provides a rich mobile internet experience…but can result in an outrageous bill from your carrier if you don’t already have a hefty data plan. Cheap and / or fixed data rates means consumers will be able to enjoy products like Yahoo! Go without fear of having to re-mortgage the house after binging on data.

Since my last post on Bell’s introduction of fixed rates in Canada, Telus has started offering $15 fixed data plans as a retention strategy for existing customers. With both Bell and Telus dropping their data rates as a pre-emptive strike against the pending introduction of the iphone in Canada, we can only expect universal fixed data plans are on their way.  Adding a fourth carrier can only help.

Mobile as a mass medium may no longer be restricted to countries not named Canada.  Pretty cool, eh?