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My Nine 2012 Mobile Predictions

It’s no longer about the year of mobile.  The decade of mobile has begun and holds more promise than the interweb did in the early 2000s.

Here are 9 predictions I have for the mobile space in 2012:

  1. As I’ve been saying for years, the mobile web (thanks to HTML5) will overtake any specific App platform. It just makes too much sense to develop once and publish across all platforms – especially since you don’t lose any of the experience you would get in an App environment. Consumers are catching on that many times you actually don’t need an app for that.
  2. The mobile web will surpass traffic of the desktop web for the first time
  3. Just as QR or 2d bar codes have replaced the need to have an SMS marketing campaign for most marketers, NFC enabled phones will start replacing the need for QR codes.  First you’ll see the two of them together (like we used to see an SMS shortcode and QR code) then very quickly everything you see will be NFC enabled
  4. Brands and marketers will realize that the tablet web experience is a different context than their desktop website or mobile website and will start building out HTML5 driven experiences to take advantage of this channel
  5. All screens become mobile. It’s no longer just about the size of your smartphone or tablet, very quickly it will become about which screens (taxi cab, your car, TV etc…) you can connect to
  6. With the connection of everything to everything all the time, security and privacy will become differentiators for those who can both  make it simple to use and understand
  7. Just as the touch experience has revolutionized the way we interact with our electronics,  gesture based interfaces will start to appear and will soon replace touch.  Could this mean the return of the clapper? :)
  8. I first realized the potential of a bendable & scrollable mobile screen when I blogged about it from the Mobile World Congress in 2008.   2012 will be the year when we will first be introduced to mobile devices that either have bendable / flexible screens and / or are scrollable
  9. Social media becomes more mobile and more local

Fee free to add your own predictions or rebuff mine with your comments below. Happy New Year!



  • Jeremy Mcconnell

    There have been a lot of north americian mobile payment trials in the last 18 months. I feel we will see at least one big player launch something beyond trial.

  • http://twitter.com/AndrewHansen Andrew Hansen

    I agree that HTML5 will overtake native app. development, but I think we are still a few years away.  Background processes, notifications, game grade graphic support and Bluetooth are just starting to be addressed now, they aren’t easy problems to solve and will most likely take another year or two to solve.

  • Anonymous

    Hey Andrew –  i agree that it will take a few years for the complete take-over, but this will be the year that developers and pundits stop talking about native Apps as the only option.   Also agree that games will be slowest to transition, but just about everything else can be done well with an HTML5 mobile website or based App.

  • Anonymous

    Agreed – although i believe that before standards are agreed on it will be hard to get mass adoption. Any guess on which player will be the first to roll out something bigger than a regional or local trial?

  • Petros

    Spot on with the predictions especially point 3 (on a much broader scale) . This is particularly relevant to sub-Sahara Africa where major inroads have been made for the financial services and retail industry with mobile. The cell phone has brought and is growing cashless transaction processes to the great ‘unbanked’ masses.  For those living in the 1st world its difficult to understand the implications of an environment where the nearest atm is often many kilometres away.  

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  • Sylvain

    I think these are good predictions… for the next 5 years, not in 2012.

    HTML5 maybe, but does that mean it’s not an app?  I would suggest HTML5 will bring many more apps, some requiring a lot more horsepower, and we’ll be able to enjoy them because they will sit in the cloud rather than running on our limited memory/power/battery of our mobile devices.

  • liu w

    B U Y  F R O M   –  ALIEXPRESS . C O M

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