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10 Mobile Predictions for 2009

by Phil Barrett

Here we go again…  here are my 10 informed best guesses on what will happen in the Canadian market place this year. Click here to see how I did against last year’s predictions. 

  1. It will be the year of the App store. Every manufacturer in the smartphone space will have a mobile application store, but Apple will continue to dominate the market because they are the only ones who focus on usability first
  2. There will be several new models of the iphone announced and launched this year – including a “nano” version.  I predict that copy & paste will still not be among one of its many features
  3. Palm Pre will do better than any Android device. Friends, peers and industry pals all mocked me for predicting that they would make a come back when I published some predictions in August, but I’m sticking with this one
  4. Mobile security and privacy will become a big focus for marketers and the industry as more people use feature rich smart phones (25% of Canadians are already on them)
  5. Mobile payment systems will finally reach retail as both MasterCard and Visa should be ready to go  
  6. MMS will fail to reach its promise as the market shifts to the mobile web for richer experiences
  7. Both Bell and Telus announce GSM compatibility / network infrastructure upgrades in order to get a piece of the lucrative GSM roaming market and to counter efforts by new regional and national carriers who will be entering the marketing in Q4
  8. Microsoft will release a new OS for mobile that includes a 2d code reader that supports their own proprietary M-Tag.  This will finally bring 2d codes into the mainstream in North America
  9. All major Canadian news / content websites will have a specific mobile enabled website
  10. 40 Billion SMS messages will be sent in Canada – up from about the 20 Billion fore-casted in 2008.

What do you think? Feel free to comment /add your own predictions.

  • http://mikemywords.com/ Mike McDowell

    I’m excited to see things kick off with 2d codes (or M-Tag codes – whatever!). I think we can get really creative with how to use these in the future.

  • http://mikemywords.com Mike McDowell

    I’m excited to see things kick off with 2d codes (or M-Tag codes – whatever!). I think we can get really creative with how to use these in the future.

  • http://sachendra.wordpress.com/ Sachendra Yadav

    Palm Pre: Please add one more guy to the mocking list ;) although I’ll me more than willing to eat my words if it does well, such an awesome company that went so wrong… I hope they make it

    Couple of my predictions:

    1. LBS will still not be able to make headway although even last year was touted as the year of LBS.

    2. Nokia will start loosing market share, this will be a bad year for them

    3. Android will start gaining ground, not a whirlwind like iPhone but a slow and steady winner in the making.

  • http://sachendra.wordpress.com Sachendra Yadav

    Palm Pre: Please add one more guy to the mocking list ;) although I’ll me more than willing to eat my words if it does well, such an awesome company that went so wrong… I hope they make it

    Couple of my predictions:

    1. LBS will still not be able to make headway although even last year was touted as the year of LBS.

    2. Nokia will start loosing market share, this will be a bad year for them

    3. Android will start gaining ground, not a whirlwind like iPhone but a slow and steady winner in the making.

  • http://www.burningthebacon.com/ Phil Barrett

    Thanks for the additional predictions Sachendra!

    What do you think the barriers are for LBS to take off?

  • http://www.burningthebacon.com Phil Barrett

    Thanks for the additional predictions Sachendra!

    What do you think the barriers are for LBS to take off?

  • http://sachendra.wordpress.com/ Sachendra Yadav

    With the technical challenges more or less resolved, I think the biggest challenge for LBS is user acceptance (which in turn relates to security and privacy issues).
    LBS services face distrust by users owing to the loss of personal freedom and control over the technology e.g. intrusive advertising, commercial pressure, loss of autonomy, etc.
    It is crucial for the service provider to maintain a level of trust with users by acting transparently with regards to personal privacy translating into strict application of a code of ethics on the service use combined with clear and simple information for consumers on the usages that could be made of their location data / ensure consumers have the means of controlling what they can and cannot do i.e. right not to be located, not to be disconnected, choose who will have access to his data, etc.

    Unless there’s clarity on these issues, LBS will not go mainstream

  • http://sachendra.wordpress.com Sachendra Yadav

    With the technical challenges more or less resolved, I think the biggest challenge for LBS is user acceptance (which in turn relates to security and privacy issues).
    LBS services face distrust by users owing to the loss of personal freedom and control over the technology e.g. intrusive advertising, commercial pressure, loss of autonomy, etc.
    It is crucial for the service provider to maintain a level of trust with users by acting transparently with regards to personal privacy translating into strict application of a code of ethics on the service use combined with clear and simple information for consumers on the usages that could be made of their location data / ensure consumers have the means of controlling what they can and cannot do i.e. right not to be located, not to be disconnected, choose who will have access to his data, etc.

    Unless there’s clarity on these issues, LBS will not go mainstream

  • Cush

    Great predictions… Here are my thoughts on a few of them…

    prediction 1 , While apple may retain its top position I predict that there will be a major rework on how the store presents applications. Apple is already suffering backlash from developers and end users on its current app store structure.

    Prediction 2 It will only be one new model if defined by form size
    with most of the same functionality. Current model will add a 32 gig model.

    Prediction 3 Gosh I hope so! The current google android phone has like 2 hrs tops battery life!… not very usable;-)

  • Cush

    Great predictions… Here are my thoughts on a few of them…

    prediction 1 , While apple may retain its top position I predict that there will be a major rework on how the store presents applications. Apple is already suffering backlash from developers and end users on its current app store structure.

    Prediction 2 It will only be one new model if defined by form size
    with most of the same functionality. Current model will add a 32 gig model.

    Prediction 3 Gosh I hope so! The current google android phone has like 2 hrs tops battery life!… not very usable;-)